Studies Show Communist China Won’t Be The Next Dominator of the World Order

On April 19, Miles Guo mentioned in his 419 Live Broadcast that the CCP dictator, Xi Jinping, who is obsessed with Modelski’s model of world leadership, is trying to undermine the world order through instigating conflicts and making himself the next world leader. However, studies have shown that, according to Modelski, on the contrary, it is impossible for Communist China to be the next world dominator.

Modelski’s long cycle theory states that the world power system needs a leader, and the evolution of world polity is cyclical and changing, with a cycle of 100-120 years. New world leaders often emerge from wars, with sea power being a core requirement for a country to become the world leader. The research literature of Pennsylvania State’s School of International Affairs points out three additional prerequisites for realizing the Modelski cycle: Is there a nation willing and able to become a world leader? Is there a country that can provide and implement “geopolitical innovation”? Finally, does the majority of the world want such an order?Since the 16th century, the world has gone through five centuries and four centers of world leadership, beginning with the center of Portugal, followed by the centre of the Netherlands, the Centre of England, and the existing center of U.S. Throughout history, these countries were among the most technologically advanced, civilized, and politically enlightened at the time. Most of the countries in the world were willing to imitate and follow.

According to a reasonable presumption made on this historical cycle, the University of Pennsylvania concluded that the following country to emerge as a world leader would be an ally of the United States, not its adversary. Obviously, the Chinese Communist Party is a dictatorship, which is utterly incompatible with the above three conditions, and this regime regards the United States as its greatest enemy.

Obsession in Modelski’s long cycle theory is a mere dream of Xi Jinping and the CCP authorities chasing world hegemony. Unfortunately, the Chinese people, and even all people of the world, will have to pay a high price for it.